Before I begin, my apologies for the lack of a post for yesterday.  I was in the middle of a look into last night’s Phillies-Braves match-up when my computer decided to not save half of my post right before I needed to leave for work.  As much as I wish I could have put something else together, I never got the chance.  Moving on though…

Baltimore Orioles (1-1) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (1-1)
Camden Yards, 3:10 P.M.
Miguel González (0-0, -.–) vs. Roberto Hernández (0-0, -.–)

In this rubber game match-up between the Orioles and Rays, two enigmatic pitchers will be on display for their respective teams.  The Orioles will be sending Miguel González to the mound, a twenty-seven year old righty who started and struggled in A ball last season while the Rays counter with Roberto Hernández, the true identity of former Cleveland Indians ace Fausto Carmona.  Not exactly the most textbook match-up by any means.

Roberto Hernández (Getty Images)

On a related note, it’s fair to say the Orioles aren’t a textbook team either.  Led by managerial tactician Buck Showalter, Baltimore is one of the best teams when it comes to overall lineup construction.  Balanced from top to bottom, the Orioles lineup features power threats Chris Davis and Matt Wieters while also relying on contact hitters like Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts to provide speed on the base paths.  Add in up-and-coming superstar Adam Jones to the middle of the order and you have a pitcher’s worst nightmare.  For this reason the Orioles present a challenge to every opposing team as they have no glaring weaknesses on offense.  For Hernández this will be a big issue as the sinkerballer is still looking to reestablish himself after an age falsification incident had him suspended.  Struggling late last year and this spring, I personally don’t see how Hernández made this team or how this outing could end well for him.    It seems clear that Hernández is no longer the pitcher that formed a dominant one-two punch along with CC Sabathia for the Indians so his best bet will be to rededicate himself to refining his breaking pitches.  As with most sinker-centric pitchers, this would mean a shift in focus to his curveball, which has been unspectacular recently.  Unless he can somehow pull off a major overhaul in a week’s time, I don’t expect Hernández to find very much success this season.  With talented AAA pitchers Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery (if he’s finally healthy) right behind him on the depth chart and a sinker that can no longer sink with the best of them, Hernández could very quickly find himself out of the Rays rotation and on his way to a minor league deal somewhere else.

Miguel González (Jim Rogash / Getty Images)

As harsh as that sounds, it’s not as much of a bad thing when you think about it.  Clearly the Rays’ starting pitching is their biggest strength so being excluded from it isn’t as difficult to stomach.  It’s the Rays offense that’s their weakness and, in my eyes, difficult to stomach.  After losing several All-Stars to free agency the past couple of seasons, it seems the Rays are forced to completely overhaul their offense every year.  And although the lineup they put together is able to put up a decent amount of runs each year, I see huge room for improvement.  What’s been the Rays greatest strength on offense has been power and speed, a duo that most teams crave to have a healthy balance of in their lineup (like the Orioles do).  But what the Orioles have that the Rays do not is hitters that can carry a strong batting average for a season.  It’s an undeniable fact that since 2009 the Rays have been on the wrong end of three perfect games, a no-hitter and a seventeen strikeout, one-hit masterpiece by Brandon Morrow.  Now try to tell me that the Rays have a good offense.  Power and speed are not the solution to everything and in order for the Rays to reach the postseason and find success they’ll need to figure this out for themselves.  The off-season acquisitions of Yunel Escobar and James Loney should help but what will be most important is the health of star third baseman Evan Longoria.  If he is able to put up the numbers he is capable of in the middle of the order then the Rays have the ability to reach a whole new level of domination this season.  Combine this with the inevitable arrival of super prospect Wil Myers and you have an offense that can finally strike fear in the heart of any pitcher.

Against Miguel González the Rays could greatly benefit from a contact-oriented approach on offense today.  Still relatively unproven, González showed last year that despite his success he can become his own worst enemy with runners on base.  Possessing an average array of pitches, breaking González’s focus will be the key to the Rays game today.  Top of the order hitters Desmond Jennings and Ben Zobrist will be pivotal as  each presents a threat on the base paths that will stay in the back of González’s head.  Whether they steal or not, the simple presence of either of them on base should be enough to allow Longoria and the hitters behind him the chance to make González pay for the mistake pitches he will undoubtedly end up making.  If the Rays are able to capitalize on the first start nerves that González should have then expect a short and tumultuous outing for the right-hander.

Player to Watch – Rays 3B Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria (US Presswire)

As I mentioned before, Evan Longoria is a star.  Now it is time for him to make the jump toward becoming a superstar.  After a strong first three years in the Majors, Longoria has been plagued by injury issues the past couple of years.  Still just twenty-seven years old, Longoria has shown flashes of what he’s capable of but is constantly set back by nagging tweaks that upset his timing at the plate.  This year the slugger seems to be in good health, a bad sign for the rest of the American League.  Just starting to enter his prime, if Longoria can remain healthy then he should put up huge numbers in the middle of the Rays lineup.  Possessing some of the best hitting and fielding talent that the Majors has to offer, Longoria is one season away from becoming the household name that he deserves to be.  If he can stay health, don’t be surprised to hear his name come up in the AL MVP conversation for the next few years.

Player to Drop – Orioles 3B Manny Machado

Although I think Machado will be an elite hitter once his career takes off, it’s tough for me to say I agree with him being in the Majors this soon.  Putting up decent numbers for the Orioles down the stretch last year, Machado is still only twenty years old.  That’s right, TWENTY years old.  Younger than me actually, which is pretty crazy to think about.  In 2012, Machado made the jump from AA to the Majors, something that has become oddly frequent for top prospects the past few years.  And although many of these players have found success based off their talent alone, it’s impossible to deny that development at the AAA level would be beneficial for them.  Facing a movement based pitcher like Hernández, Machado could find himself at a disadvantage when it comes to pitch familiarity.  Fastball speeds may change from pitcher to pitcher but a four-seam fastball can only break so much.  With a sinker, any sort of downward movement can be put on the ball to give it a different look each time.  For a hitter like Machado unfamiliar with this at the Major League level, the results may not be so kind his first few times around.

Post Script:

Roberto Hernández had an up and down day on the mound for the Rays.  Going 6 2/3 innings with four runs allowed, his numbers were solid overall.  However, the damage done against him could have been a lot worst.  Aided by seven strikeouts, Hernández was able to prevent more than half the runners he allowed on base to score, something that makes his final line look a lot better than it was.  Unable to put together back-to-back perfect innings, Hernández’s struggle with consistency is what should stick out most from his performance.  Overall, today was a lackluster start for the right-hander and still leaves him as a question mark waiting to be figured out somewhere down the line.

Similarly, Orioles starter Miguel González put together a performance that left a lot to be desired.  Lasting 6 1/3 with only two runs allowed, González was effective at most.  By keeping hitters off base in his first couple of innings,  González was able to get into a groove and shut the Rays down.  As he made it to the fifth though, things started to pile up on González as a leadoff single was followed by three more hits that allowed two runs to score.  By limiting Desmond Jennings and Ben Zobrist to getting on base only once between the both of them, González was able to keep his distractions to a minimum.  Only when he was forced to pitch in a trouble situation did he lose control of the game.  However, luck was on his side as a Tampa Bay double play allowed him to escape the inning with a lot less damage done.

Despite only scrapping together three runs as a team, Evan Longoria played a significant role in the Rays offense for the day.  Going 2 for 4 and collecting his first RBI of the season, Longoria easily had his team’s best day at the plate.  Still working on finding his power this season, Longoria is off to a hot start.  Collecting five hits in his first three games, it should only be a short time longer until Longoria is once again crushing balls into the stands at big league parks across the country.  Until then though, the most Longoria can do is continue to contribute, something he has not surprisingly been able to do with ease so far this year.

Finally, Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado unfortunately did live up to my predictions before the game.  Going 0 for 5 with two strikeouts and two groundouts, Machado was unable to put any good contact on the ball until his final at-bat in the ninth inning.  As expected, Hernández’s movement-based pitching style was able to keep Machado in check throughout the game and limit his ability to drive the ball.  It’ll only be a matter of time until Machado learns how to approach these styles of pitchers but until that time comes, expect a similar line of troubles to continue.