New York Mets (4-2) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2-4)
Citizens Bank Park, 7:05 P.M.
Matt Harvey (1-0, 0.00) vs. Roy Halladay (0-1, 13.50)

If you followed this blog throughout the spring then you probably already know that I took the time to feature both these pitchers in previous posts.  However, it’s the regular season and it’s a whole new ball game so it’s worth taking a look at both of these guys again and the teams they play for, especially with the context of their first starts in mind.

The Mets are off to a strong start this year, winning their first two series while having one of the top offenses in the game.  No, I’m not lying right now.  One of the teams to make the fewest moves at the Major League level this off-season, the Mets have proven that they’re still one of the best when it comes to putting up a fight.  The past four years have seen the Mets not come close to making the playoffs, a big difference from the way they were playing at the beginning of the millennium.  Like most big market teams, bad contracts caught up to them over the years, a situation further complicated by owner Fred Wilpon being involved in Bernie Madoff’s financial schemes.  It’s a franchise where the only consistent thing at this point is third baseman David Wright, yet every year New York is a factor up until the end of the season, playing spoiler to the other teams in the National League that are fighting for a playoff spot.

This year the Mets seem once again destined for a fourth place finish in the NL East but there’s a wild card in Philadelphia that could change the way the entire division shakes out.  That wild card is Roy Halladay.  Easily the best pitcher of this generation, Halladay is at the point where he needs to completely reinvent himself.  After several significant injuries to his shoulder last year, Halladay has pitched poorly in the past month and the results were on display in his first start against Atlanta.  Giving up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings, the concern is officially at an all-time high in Philadelphia (good news for the rest of the league, right?).  The problem is that Halladay has completely lost the effectiveness of his fastball, causing him to become far too dependent on his breaking pitches.  As great as his curveball has been in his career, the stress placed on the arm by throwing breaking pitches is much higher than fastball stress, a big-time red flag moving forward for Halladay.  Although Halladay retired nine of the ten Atlanta batters he was able to get out via strikeout on Tuesday night, it took him ninety-five pitches to get those outs.  That, on top of three walks, is not indicative of an ace pitcher.  So, like Halladay stressed in his post-game presser, there’s a need for immediate changes to be made.  Against the Mets, Halladay has the benefit of facing a relatively inexperienced offense; however, the pesky hitting styles of infielders Daniel Murphy and Ruben Tejada could put Halladay’s biggest issues in the spotlight.  The point of pitching is to get outs and without a fastball this will be the hardest thing for Halladay to do until he sorts himself out.  It’s probably going to take time, and may never even end up happening, but it’s the only way for Halladay to do things moving forward.  Today may not be the day that it all comes together but I wouldn’t say that Halladay is a lost cause yet.  You can never bet against a competitor, no matter how bad things may look.

Speaking of which, the 2012 Phillies are the perfect example of coming back from a poor showing.  After getting off to an awful start last year that saw them be sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in years, the Phillies were able to scrap together an even record at the end of the year.  If you were following this team from day one then you know how virtually impossible this seemed in April and May.  Hurt by an offense based around players on the downside of their careers, the Phillies are no longer the elite hitting team that they were five years ago.  Chase Utley is no longer the best second baseman in the game.  Ryan Howard is no longer a forty home run hitter.  Jimmy Rollins is no longer a MVP candidate.  At this point these three are just average players being paid at an above average rate.  There is one thing that this lineup still has though and it’s enough to keep them around in the National League playoff picture year in and year out.

Veteran savvy is irreplaceable.  It can’t be created, it can’t be acquired in any high-profile draft pick.  It needs to be earned by time in the Majors and that’s something the Phillies have more than any other team.  Possessing one of the oldest lineups in baseball, Philadelphia is a team reliant on their veterans’ ability to play the game effectively.  Whether it means dropping a bunt in the right situation or reading a defensive shift in a critical at bat, the Phillies are one of the most efficient teams in baseball.  It’s teams like this that tend to give young pitchers the most trouble.  Against a young Padres team that I featured a few days ago, Mets second-year starter Matt Harvey allowed one hit in seven innings, striking out ten.  It’s a start that has brought hope and big expectations to New York as the highly regarded prospect has seemed to prove that he’s worth all the hype.  This isn’t the case yet though.  Facing the Phillies today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harvey struggle, especially in the walks department.  Battling control issues throughout his time in the Minors, Harvey has shown that such is his weakness and the Phillies are the kind of team to take advantage of that.  In two starts against Philadelphia last year, Harvey walked five batters in 13 1/3 innings, a discrepancy he was able to get away with without any major damage.  This time around though the Phillies are healthier and stronger, a sign that Harvey might not be as fortunate if he faces the same control issues.  It’s a common problem young pitchers face, and most tend to get away with it, but it’s also something the Phillies are constantly taking advantage of and that may be the case tonight as well.

Player to Watch – Phillies 1B Ryan Howard

It’s been a long time coming for Ryan Howard to return to form.  A safe bet to hit anywhere between forty to fifty home runs in a given season just a few years ago, injuries and age have not been kind to Howard.  It’s been a complete change for the slugger whose only consistent statistic has been in the strikeout department.  However, it isn’t completely time to give up on Howard.  After a hot spring that saw him hit seven home runs, Howard may be one good at-bat away from clicking once again.  Spring showed that he’s healthy, now it’s time for the results to do the same.  Against a fastball-reliant pitcher like Harvey, Howard stands his best chance at getting a pitch to drive out of the park.  It’s a scene we’re all used to, Howard cleaning out a high fastball for a mammoth home run and sending the Philadelphia crowd into hysterics.  All it takes is one mistake from Harvey to bring those days back to Philly.  Then it’ll be up to Howard to put that trademark power back on display in the middle of the Phillies lineup.

Player to Drop – Mets LF Lucas Duda

Let me start this with the disclaimer that the Mets outfield is on a rotating basis so Duda may not be playing tonight.  My assumption would be that as a left-handed hitter he gets the start but I suppose we’ll find out.  Anyway, Duda is your classic non-prospect who makes it to the big leagues based on great Minor League numbers despite not having the projected tools to succeed in the Majors.  Rolls off the tongue, right?  Duda possesses a solid amount of left-handed power that teams preciously desire but has failed to prove definitively that he can hit big league pitching.  And Roy Halladay sure is a big league pitcher.  Even though his fastball is essentially a non-factor at this point, his breaking pitches are sure to give Duda fits each time he steps up to bat.  Without a hit in nine at-bats against Halladay, it’s safe to say that Duda has already had enough of the former ace.

Post Script:

Another start, another struggle for Roy Halladay as he couldn’t make it through the fifth inning and gave up seven runs to the Mets last night.  Without large strikeout numbers to back him up, this outing makes it clear things are getting worst for Halladay.  Four of Halladay’s six hits allowed came on fastballs, a sign that hitters are definitely no longer afraid of what used to be his greatest weapon.  It’s no lie that Halladay is going to need to reinvent himself if he wants to keep his career going.  At this pace he’s no better than a number four starter and that’s unacceptable for somebody with his pedigree.

In contrast, Matt Harvey pitched very well for the Mets last night, garnering a lot of praise on his way through seven dominant innings.  Getting attention from the MLB Network as well as Curt Schilling, Harvey operated between 94-98 miles per hour on his fastball while mixing in a couple of vanishing sliders along the way.  There’s no doubt that his stuff is as good as any other young starter in the game today but I’m still cautiously skeptical about his walk issues (he’s still yet to go an entire start without walking a batter).  His career could go in any direction from this point onward but it looks like Harvey is intent on trending upward as the season goes on.

Although he put together a couple of solid at-bats, Ryan Howard once again had nothing to show for it as the slugging first baseman went o for 3 with two strikeouts.  Not able to catch up to Harvey’s fastball on several separate occasions, Howard continues to make it clear that he may never come close to being what he used to be.  Until he proves he can handle the heater again the rest of the league will continue to take note and blow fastballs by him upstairs.  And as long as the strikeouts keep piling up expect things to only go downhill from here for Howard.  Wow, Spring Training really was such a tease…

Finally, Lucas Duda went 1 for 3 with a walk and a RBI as he got the start out in left field for the Mets.  After being hit by a Halladay pitch his first time up, Duda roped a fastball up the middle in his second at-bat for his only hit on the day.  An example of perfect timing at the plate, the hit came on a lifeless two-seamer and reinforced that Duda is simply an established junk ball hitter.  A strikeout on a change-up and a groundout on a curveball in his last two at-bats show that there’s still a lot left to be desired for the Mets left-hander.  At twenty-seven years old, time is starting to run out for Duda and he’ll need to prove that he can handle pitches other than the fastball if he wants to cement a starting position in this offense.